The future of television is a topic that continues to evolve, and the next three years promise to be a pivotal period for the industry. With the backdrop of rapid change and a shifting landscape, media insiders and executives are offering their insights into what the future may hold. While some predict a decline in cable TV subscribers, others see opportunities for innovation and growth. The key questions on everyone's mind are: Will we hit a floor on cable TV subscribers? What will become a TV industry standard that doesn't exist today? Will there be a major government action to prevent a Big Tech company from getting bigger in the entertainment industry? And are we in a sports viewership ratings bubble?
One thing is certain: the television industry is in flux. Deals, spinouts, and partnerships are reshaping the landscape, and the pace of change is only accelerating. The number of cable TV subscribers has been declining for over a decade, and streaming services are now profitable, but growth has plateaued. This is the context for CNBC's Future of TV survey, which asked media insiders and executives to forecast the next three years in TV.
Chris Winfrey, CEO of Charter Communications, predicts a dramatic decline in cable TV subscribers, citing the high cost of free over-the-air retransmission. He sees streaming bundles, including Netflix, as a potential solution, offering more choice, value, and utility for customers. Jeff Zucker, RedBird IMI CEO and former NBCUniversal CEO, disagrees, believing that cable TV will continue to decline but will not reach a floor, as sports rights will eventually disappear from the platform. Charlie Collier, Roku Media president, acknowledges the decline but emphasizes that nothing truly goes to zero, as there will always be someone paying for AOL dial-up or renting a DVD.
Rashida Jones, Uncensored CEO and former MSNBC president, predicts that consumers will continue to choose platforms other than linear television, but the industry has not been accurate in forecasting the speed of this shift. Jimmy Pitaro, ESPN chairman, sees ubiquitous personalization as a key trend, with networks providing the right content to the right user at the right time, and content being created and tailored to individual preferences. Anjali Sud, Tubi CEO, envisions a world where ads are hyper-personalized, and commerce integration becomes frictionless, with product placement and deep linking to partner sites.
John Landgraf, chairman of FX content and studios, highlights the importance of day-and-date global releases, where the biggest shows premiere everywhere in the world at the same time. Zucker predicts that podcasters and livestreaming shows will become licensed to cable networks, and Jeffrey Hirsch, Starz president and CEO, sees content without borders, where AI will allow consumers to watch content in their native language, with subbing and dubbing becoming obsolete.
Winfrey also predicts immersive programming, particularly around sports with 8K TV, will reinvigorate the pay-TV industry. He points to Spectrum Front Row's cooperation with the NBA and Apple Vision Pro as an example of this trend. While some question whether we are in a sports viewership ratings bubble, Pitaro, Winfrey, and Collier all believe that live sports will continue to be strong, with ratings going up due to short-form content, immersive capabilities, and communal moments.
In terms of market share, there is broad agreement that the biggest streaming services will likely still be the biggest in three years. However, some see opportunities for other services to gain significant market share. Debra OConnell, Disney Entertainment Television chairman, points to Instagram's recent announcement about TV formats, while Winfrey sees a potential opportunity for a new entrant to aggregate various services and offer them at a discounted rate. Zucker predicts that TikTok videos will get longer, and niche casting will continue, while Fuhrer highlights the growth of platforms like Roku Channel, Tubi, and Pluto.
In conclusion, the future of television is uncertain, but the next three years promise to be a period of innovation and growth. The industry is evolving rapidly, and media insiders and executives are offering their insights into what the future may hold. While some see a decline in cable TV subscribers, others see opportunities for new entrants and innovative trends. The key trends to watch include ubiquitous personalization, content without borders, immersive programming, and the continued strength of live sports. The future of television is a fascinating topic, and the next three years will be pivotal in shaping its trajectory.
